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Filmed and edited By Roger Essig. June 24th 2017. Bells Beach, Victoria Australia.

Music by Them Crooked Vultures. ‘Spinning in the Daffodils’

‘A vigorous polar front swept from southwest of Tasmania to Victoria’s central coast on Saturday, producing waves of more than three metres.’ -Alex Sinnott, Geelong Advertiser

“The models are, for the most part maintaining the forecast for a peak on Saturday morning, showing a 20 to 25ft deepwater SSW swell @ 17 seconds. The storm is already generating 40 to 50 knot SW winds across polar latitudes, below WA and this fetch is on course to travel northeast towards Bass Strait throughout Thursday, setting up a captured fetch of 40 to 50 knots.
However, consecutive model runs have shown a slight, but incremental downgrading in wave-potential; associated with an earlier than initially forecast weakening of the fetch, setting in from Thursday evening onwards. Note this slight downgrading is reflected in GFS, ACCESS and EC model runs. So it looks like wave-growth will cease around 600 or 700 nautical miles southwest of Bass Strait – and I think the resulting wave-decay is probably enough to cap the peak of the swell at about 8 to 10ft at Bells on Saturday morning. Further, EC runs are consistently forecasting wind-speeds a little below GFS – and this points to a further, albeit minor downgrading of wave-potential.” – Ben Macartney

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